Market Overview by FXCC July 16 2012

US to face huge eco data risks this week

Asian markets will be exceptionally quiet next week. Only a pair of central bank minutes are due out - one from the RBA on Monday and the other from the BoJ on Tuesday — and will be parsed for clues regarding recent and future expected policy actions in the wake of stimulus measures provided by both central banks.

European markets will be relatively more subdued in terms of risk influences upon markets in comparison to developments in the US. Italy is expected to approve the ESM apparatus and fiscal pact. US markets will face enormous risk on each of the corporate earnings, policy, and economic fundamentals calendars next week. Data risk will kick off the week with retail sales expected to come in largely flat on Monday.
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2012-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU - Consumer Price Index (June)
2012-07-16 12:30 GMT | Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities
2012-07-16 12:30 GMT | US - Retail Sales (Jun)
2012-07-16 14:00 GMT | US - Business Inventories (May)


2012-07-15 22:42 GMT | Market response to Bernanke could be savage - NAB
2012-07-15 22:22 GMT | AUD/USD quiet around 1.0250, eyes 0.618 Fibo resistance
2012-07-15 22:16 GMT | ECB views on bondholders losses makes a 'risk-off' turn
2012-07-15 22:02 GMT | China has 'relatively big' room to cut RRR - Xinhua


EURUSD : 1.22412 / 1.22417
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2293 : 1.2283 : 1.2265
1.2237 : 1.2227 : 1.2209

SUMMARY| Down
TREND| Down trend
MA10 | Bearish
MA20 | Bearish
STOCHASTIC | Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals continue to read bearish, with a new 2-year low and all signals in sell territory. However, the RSI at 36 warns of EUR approaching oversold levels. Stochastic has crossed over into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. The pair has reached its minimum in the last two years, having fallen from a peak of 1.2247 reaching its lowest level at 1.2165. If today the pair is able to break the key support at 1.2165, the next level is 1.2150, while breaking the 1.2250 resistance may postpone the attainment of these expectations. If it is successfully pushed back down then it could fall to the 1.2125; if, however, it breaks out higher than it would rally to 1.2300.

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GBPUSD 1.55717 / 1.55727
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.5639 : 1.5607 : 1.5590
1.5563 : 1.5526 : 1.5403

SUMMARY | Neutral
TREND | Up trend
MA10 | Bullish
MA20 | Bullish
STOCHASTIC | Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals are neutral and confused after Friday's surges in prices expect a rally to the.382 Fibonacci at 1.5595 and then a move back to the S5 at 1.5400. A break up would target the 1.5700. Most long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that at present there is no defined trend. Most likely the pair will try to test support at 1.5570, while breaking the level of 1.5575 would delay the realization of these expectations.

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USDJPY : 79.126 / 79.131
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.735 : 79.435 : 79.270
79.035 : 78.845 : 78.655

SUMMARY | Down
TREND | Down trend
MA10 | Bearish
MA20 | Bearish
STOCHASTIC | Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals are bearish - trading towards the lower end of recent range, with support at 200 day MA 79.03, Price is currently at 79.10 sitting right on the support line, just below the .500 Fibonacci at 79.17 in a sideways choppy move. A break of this will confirm the move to 79.00. A breakdown there looks for the double bottom at 77.67 but before we could see a move toward 78.80. While the daily chart's MACD/MA has formed a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future, most other technical indicators show this pair range-trading. Just a reminder, Japanese markets are on holiday today.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)