Posts Tagged ‘USDCHF analysis’

USDCHF: Bearish Market Condition

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Have you noticed that the EURUSD moved down a few hundred pips in the last days breaking important LT support levels, and even though the USCHF followed (mirroring due to the negative correlation) for the downside, but the later didn’t break important support levels? Weird isn’t it?

Anyway, looks like the USDCHF its being rejected from an important LT resistance level:

USDCHF

USDCHF

In the Weekly charts it is also trading just below an important LT resistance level which helps the bearish condition found in the daily charts.

My Trading Plan:

As long as the USDCHF keeps trading below 1.0421 I will be looking for short trade opportunities.

All long opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

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EURUSD and USDCHF: both trading in a 4H range

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Both the EURUSD and the USDCHF are trading in a 4H range; please take a look at the next charts:

EURUSD & USDCHF

EURUSD & USDCHF

Does it mean that these to currency pairs are not tradable today?

Nope, remember how we define the market condition, how the market reacts to important long term support and resistance levels, for instance, if the USDCHF gets rejected from the LT support level, we’ll be in a bullish market condition and if the EURUSD gets rejected from the resistance level, we´ll all be in a bearish market condition.

So today I’ll be looking for a trade in the direction of the market condition (if I get a good risk-reward ration on my trades).

Trade Safe
Raul Lopez

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More ranges…

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

Ahhh man, I thought that after the NFP announcement last Friday we were going to see more trading opportunities, but that’s not the case. Last week most pairs ranged, in the first two days of the week we have more ranges, just one opportunity: Short USDCAD (we wrote about this yesterday), but in the others… nothing for no one….

Trade opportunities:

USDCAD – Short

Trading at an important level:

EURUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
EURGBP
GBPCHF
EURJPY

Not clear market condition:

GBPUSD
GBPJPY
NZDUSD

However, remember we got 6 pairs trading at important levels, as soon as they get out of the short term range, we’ll be trading them. Anyway, remember we are not supposed to trade every day, we are supposed to trade when we really have a good chance to win.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez

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Good Trading Opportunities for today

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

free trading sessions (which you can subscribe from here).

Today the market is clearer than yesterday, we have plenty of trading opportunities in the EURUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, GBPCHF and more. Please see the video for details.

In this video: Daily analysis on major forex currency pairs (and some crosses):

If you cant see this video you need to download this codec

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GDP and more

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

The US GDP was announced earlier this morning, and it came out better than expected (3.5% vs. 3.2%). For the first time in more than a year the US is showing an expansion, this makes traders and investors think about the recovery of the world crisis, is it over? I don’t know, but certainly this is very good news for all of us.

We know everyone’s main focus right now is at GDP numbers, last Friday, we the market took a big impact because of UK’s GDP, today the same happened on the US figures, so expect a lot of impact in future GDP releases.

Now, about technical analysis, I would say the best thing to do in the Forex Majors is to wait for the next week, then I think we’ll have a clearer market condition. Something interesting could be developing in the EURUSD and USDCHF, but we’ll have to wait for further confirmation.

My main focuses right now are:

GBPCHF, which is in a clear bullish market condition and I’m looking for long trading opportunities, and

EURGBP, which is in a clear bearish market condition, and looking for short opportunities.

Trade Safe

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Market condition change

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Last week we did post about the possible bullish market condition in the GBPUSD and the GBPJPY. But we also mentioned that the interest rate announcement from the FED could change the sentiment of the market, and it did.

For pairs like the EURUSD where there was a bullish market condition, the market entered into a consolidation period with a bearish bias, and the same happened to the USDCHF (mirroring the EURUSD) was in a bearish market condition, but now it is in a consolidation period with a bullish bias.

For the GBPUSD and the GBPJPY, both of them were in a bullish market condition, but suddenly after the interest announcement the market condition changed the other way around to a bearish market condition. The good news is that we still have some room before the market hits its next long term support level, hope we are able to open position in these two pairs.

We’ll be updating you about the market condition during the week.

Trade safe

Raul Lopez

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USDCHF: Shorts in Play

Wednesday, September 9th, 2009

Yesterday I wrote about the EURUSD, that it just broke a long term resistance level and got out of the range it traded for more than 2 months. Well, the same happened to the USDCHF, it broke two long term support levels and it is also trading below the range it traded for more than 2 months. Take a look at the next chart:

USDCHF

USDCHF

Now, the next long term support level is around 1.0172, the market right now is trading at 1.0426, this means we have a long way to get there, so fasten your seatbelts :)

My Trading Plan:

As long as the USDCHF keeps trading below 1.0447 I will be looking for short opportunities and will set all my take profit orders above the next long term support level at 1.0172

Good luck

Raul Lopez

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USDCHF: at no ones land

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

If you are like me and like to trade based on the long term charts, then you already know the USDCHF is non tradable, at least until it breaks the medium term range. Please take a look at the next chart:

Since late May, the USDCHF entered in this undefined range, where I find very difficult to determine feasible turning points or those major swings. I would rather risk my capital on other pairs where the market condition is clearer.

In the beginning of August the USDCHF tried to break the bottom of the range, but it traded just there, in a short term range and then after the NFP announcement the USD recovered back to no ones land…

So, I will wait for the USDCHF to break the medium term range before I start looking for trade opportunities in the Swiss franc.

Good luck!

Raul Lopez

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USDCHF broke resistance, will the EURUSD follow?

Wednesday, June 24th, 2009

Today, the USDCHF broke the range it traded in since the 27th of May, now it has no clear resistance level until 1.1232. Please take a look at the next chart:

USDCHF

USDCHF

But now the question is: Will the EURUSD follow?

EURUSD

EURUSD

I guess we’ll have to wait, although we have one thing for certain: Remember there is a negative correlation between these two pairs, when the EURUSD goes up, the USDCHF tends to go down. So, right now, if I was to go short in the EURUSD or long in the USDCHF, I’ll definitely choose long USDCHF.

Good luck!

Raul Lopez

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USDCHF: A Simple Trading Plan

Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009

The Swiss Franc is trading at an important support zone (1.0701 – blue line). I like to see the market trading in a little range in the short term charts when it approaches to important long term support or resistance levels… please take a look at the next chart:

USDCHF

USDCHF

Blue line – Long term support zone
Green lines – Short term range

Here is my trading plan for the USDCHF:

If the market breaks the short term resistance up (1.0713) I will start to look for long trading opportunities.

If the market breaks the short term support down (1.0658) I will start to look for short trading opportunities.

I will do nothing if the market stays in the short term range.

Good luck.

Raul Lopez

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