Confessions of a Forex Trader

Take a look at USDCHF’s today’s range:

It’s probably the tightest range I’ve ever seen on the USDCHF on a normal trading day (no holiday). How are we supposed to trade this range?

Most currency pairs traded in a similar range today.

Did you take any trade today? I didn’t…

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course
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I know I’ve been talking and analyzing the CHF crosses a lot, but hey, I think the CHF crosses are probably the most interesting currency pairs for the previous two or three weeks, this week, and probably the best for the month to come, we’ll see about that.

Anyway, the USDCHF is one of them and it is trading in a very clear market condition, and I’m still looking for short opportunities, there is no doubt about that. The only thing that we need to worry about is where to open our trades, that right… timing!

This is how the short term charts look like:

If the USDCHF retraces back to the LOPS1 level, and it gives me a significant pattern with downward pressure, I’ll definitely go short.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex course

Most CHF crosses are still trading in a bearish condition, and the USDCHF is probably one of the clearest of them all. It is still trading in a bearish condition and I’ll keep looking for short opportunities here. This is how the short term chart looks like:

The USDCHF needs to keep trading below the short term resistance level (upper green level) in order to keep its bearishness. If it retraces back to the ST resistance level and forms a significant pattern with downward pressure, I’ll definitely go short.

If it breaks the ST resistance level I’ll stop looking for trade opportunities.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

The USDCHF is trading in a very clear bearish market condition, earlier this morning (helped by Bernanke testimony before the House Financial Services Committee) broke through the ST and JPT support level triggering its condition:

As long as the USDCHF trades below 0.8281 I’ll be looking for short opportunities.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Courses

Earlier this morning the USDCHF broke the short term support level triggering a bearish market condition, as long as it trades below 0.8326, I’ll be looking for short opportunities:

Remember the USDCHF needs to be trading below de ST resistance level in order to be considered in a bearish condition.

Since it is trading around historical lows, all trades taken here should have at least a 3:1 risk reward ratio.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Courses

Looks like the USDCHF is about to resume its downside movement, it is clear on both, the LT and ST charts that the Swiss is likely to continue its way down, specially on the hourly chart:

As long as the USDCHF keeps trading below 0.8446 I’ll keep looking for short opportunities.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

Some traders don’t like to trade when the market is trading either at historical highs or lows, mostly because the market will retrace and they dont know when… I agree, the market sooner or later will retrace, but it could take 20 or 50 days to do so, in the meantime why not take advantage if its condition?

This is the case of the USDCHF (and AUDUSD), it is trading around historical lows, and I’m looking for short opportunities (I just hope it doesn’t retrace while I’m in a trade):

I’d like to see how it behaves around the ST resistance level (0.8689), if I get a significant pattern with downward pressure I’ll definitely do short.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

Yesterday I wrote about the USDCHF, I was waiting for the market to break the range and start looking for trades in the direction of the break out… guess what??? It broke the range last night:

Now, it is trading around historical lows, if I find a trade I will use a 3:1 risk reward ratio (we don’t have lower LT support levels).

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

Its interesting that the USDCHF its been trading in a short term range, around an important LT level, while the EURUSD has been moving from one important LT level to the other… most of the time these two currency pairs have a negative correlation, but the market hasn’t been even close these days to that condition:

I’ll wait for the market to break the ST range, then I’ll start looking for trade opportunities in the direction of the breakout.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

One of the most important parts about doing forecasts is that we need to understand when the market is trading near a LT S&R level. When we talk about LT S&R levels we are actually talking about zones (short term ranges). In this case for instance, the USDCHF is trading in a short term range in between 0.9322 and 0.9206 around a LT important level:

So my trading plan for the USDCHF is to wait for the market to break the ST range, then I’ll start looking for trade opportunities in the direction of the breakout.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training