Posts Tagged ‘Fundamental’

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Will be a complicated week

Monday, October 3rd, 2011

I don’t know about you, but I don’t see many pairs trading in a clear market condition, for instance, today I only trading about 3 or 4 today, on the others, I have no clue of what the market is likely to do.

Might be that this week we have a zillion important fundamental announcements, amongst the most important are:

Monday:

  • AUD: Trade balance and interest rate announcement

 

Tuesday:

  • GBP: Construction PMI
  • EUR: Trichet speaks
  • USD: Bernanke speaks

 

Wednesday:

  • GBP: Current account and PMI Services
  • USD: ADP Non-farm employment change

 

Thursday:

  • GBP: Interest rate
  • EUR: Interest rate
  • JPY: Interest rate
  • CAD: Ivey PMI

 

Friday:

  • JPY: BOJ press conference
  • CAD: Employment change
  • USD: Non-farm payrolls

 

So be careful this week, will you?

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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Important fundamental announcements of the week

Monday, September 19th, 2011

This week isn’t full of fundamental announcements, but we got the most important of them all: US interest rate announcement. Last time it was announced, the market went wild, not because there was any change on the interest rates, but because the statement that comes along with it. Traders and investors have been focusing on this statement in the last months, so you need to be careful.

Monday:

  • AUD – Meeting minutes

 

Tuesday:

  • EUR – German ZEW Index
  • NZD – Current account

 

Wednesday:

  • GBP – Meeting minutes
  • CAD – Core CPI
  • USD – Interest rate and FOMC Statement
  • NZD – GDP

 

Thursday:

  • CAD – Core retail sales

 

Friday:

  • None

 

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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Most important Fundamentals announcements of the week

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Hope you all had a nice and relaxing weekend!

These are the most important fundamental announcements of the week:

Monday:

  • None :)

Tuesday:

  • GBP – CPI

Wednesday:

  • GBP – Claimant Count Change (similar to unemployment claims)
  • USD – Core retail sales
  • NZD – Interest rate

Thursday:

  • CHF – Interest rate and SNB Press Conference
  • GBP – Retail sales
  • USD – core CPI

Friday:

  • TIC Long-term purchases

Be aware of them alright?

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

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This week’s important Forex events:

Monday, September 5th, 2011

This is the list of what I think are the most important announcements this week. Remember every fundamental announcement (even the ones not included on this list) have the potential to have great impact in the market!

Monday 5th:

  • US and CAN banks are closed, so don’t expect much movement today, not enough liquidity!
  • The most important announcement today is the AUD interest rate announcement (no change expected).

Tuesday 6th:

  • US Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • JPY interest rate announcement (no change expected)

Wednesday 7th:

  • GBP Manufacturing production
  • CAD interest rate announcement (no change expected)
  • AUD Employment change

Thursday 8th:

  • EUR and GBP interest rate announcements (no change expected)
  • US Trade Balance

Friday 9th:

  • CAD Employment change

Remember CAD and GBP are the currencies that react the most to their fundamental announcements.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training
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Busy week, wasn’t it?

Friday, August 12th, 2011

As a result of the US debt rating downgrade from AAA to AA+ (last Friday), we started the week with a gap. By the way, we saw exactly the opposite of what should have happened. On Monday, investors instead of getting rid of US bonds, etc (selling them) they ended up buying more, as if the US debt rating went from AAA to AAAA (there is no AAAA debt rating though). This is the probe sometimes fundamentals are not in line with market movements, I’ve seen this over and over again in the last year or so… So if you are still trading on fundamentals, give it some thought, alright?

Anyway, Monday and early Tuesday was perfect for Forex traders, the market swings were smooth and clear, and what’s better, I was able to profit from them. I took two trades, I got stopped out on one of them around the breakeven level (if I didn’t move my SL level it would had hit my take profit order) and the other one hit my TP order. So I’m up about 3% for the week.

Then on Tuesday, everything changed… the US interest rate was released (there was no change, still at 0.25%). But what was important about the announcement was what they mentioned about the interest rates for the coming years: they will hold interest rates this low for at least 2 more years.  What they are really trying to say is this:

Hey, we (the FED) expect the economy to remain sluggish at least for the next two years. Don’t be surprised if you see continued high unemployment, low domestic economy growth (or even stall), etc.

And how did the Forex market react to this? Large and undefined (and difficult to trade) swings on most currency pairs and crosses.  From Tuesday to Friday most currencies traded on a undefined range, being very difficult to trade them (at least with consistent results), so guess what, I stayed away from the market since then.

But I think things will clear up next week, the market cant trade on undefined ranges for ever, sooner or later we are going to see breakouts of these ranges, and we need to be there, we need to be able to profit from them, and this could happen the week ahead.

Let me know what you think!

Have a good weekend!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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SNB and CHF appreciation

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Today I’ve read two articles about the Swiss National Bank concerns about the CHF appreciation:

First one:  “Switzerland’s central bank said yesterday it will increase the supply of francs to fight the currency’s massive overvaluation.”

So they are using the exact same strategy the Bank of Japan does, the question here is, will it be as unsuccessful as the one used by the BOJ? I think it will. A currency pair goes up or down based on the supply/demand for it, if it is going up these days its probably because traders and investors see the CHF as a safe haven, as a reserve currency, and whatever the monetary instrument they use to stop the overvaluation, sooner or later the market will correct and continue in the direction of its sentiment (which right now is CHF bullish), that’s exactly the market job.

The second one: “some economists have said the franc’s surge toward euro parity is adding pressure on the SNB to consider a peg for the first time since the Bretton Woods currency system was abandoned in 1973.”

Now, this one could stop the massive overvaluation (still they will need to intervene), but it would be very drastic measure. With this announcement, they are following again the BOJ steps, I think they were just trying to “influence” investors, and see if they could stop them from getting CHF instruments.

This is just my opinion, only time will tell what destiny has for the CHF.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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GBPCAD Trade Update, hit limit & NFP

Friday, August 5th, 2011

The decision of holding your trades during important fundamentals releases its always tough, you never know what could happen. I definitely feel more comfortable once the market has already moved on my favor and in order to hold my trade, I need to have nothing at risk on such trade, for instance moving your stop loss to the breakeven level. But you need to remember that you still need to give the market some room so you don’t get stopped out during normal market swings.

So if it is too close to my entry SL level I just close it. However, if the market has moved on my favor, my SL is at least at the breakeven level and has enough room from my SL to the current market action, I hold my trade.

This was the case of the GBPCAD trade I took yesterday, I moved my SL since yesterday and had enough room to hold my trade during the non-farm payrolls report. It came out a little better than expected and the market didn’t take a big hit, which was good for my trade (finally hit my TP order).

Now, about the non-farm payrolls report, have you noticed that the market has not been getting a lot of impact from this announcement lately? I have… And its good! What do you think?

Have a great weekend!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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US Debt limit agreement, volatility and something about CHF crosses

Monday, August 1st, 2011

I don’t know about you, but I think the volatility we are going to see this week might be something to note (and be careful about).

First, we have plenty of fundamentals announcements, just to mention a few of the most important:

  • NZD, JPY, EUR and GBP interest rate announcements
  • US Non-farm payrolls report

Second, US Debt-Limit agreement, there is optimism about the agreement, but some analysts are already talking about a possible US debt rating downgrade, if this happens, I don’t want to tell you how the market is going to take it…

Third, its not that evident but still could mean something. Today there was a holiday on Swiss banks, but did you see the CHF movements? It went up on almost all crosses, including: GBPCHF, EURCHF, USDCHF, etc. It could be that something on Europe is cooking, and traders and investors are using the CHF as a safe heaven.

What do you think?

Be careful this week , would you?

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

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Worried about Bernanke’s Testimony

Thursday, July 21st, 2011

Bernanke testifies before the senate, and I’m worried about the questions and answers sessions, you never know what they are going to ask him, if it’s something about the market, crisis, USD, etc the market will take some impact.

Now, there are times that no impact is seen during Bernanke’s testimonies, I hope this is one of those.

Better yet, If we see some impact, let it be on the direction of my trades :)

I’ll keep you posted.

Regards,

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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Banks closed in the US

Monday, July 4th, 2011

All US banks will be closed today, therefore there is not enough liquidity to make large moves in the market… I think the best thing to do today will be to be a sideliner :)

This week we have important announcements, a few of the most important are:

AUD Interest rate Today
AUD Employment change on Wednesday
GBP – Interest rate on Thursday
EUR – Interest rate on Thursday also…
USD – Non-farm payrolls on Friday

All of these have a great potential to have impact on the market!

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Free Forex Education

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Adam Kritzer – Swiss Franc Correlation

Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

Adam Kritzer wrote a very intreresting and informative article about the correlation between USDCHF and CHFJPY, more info about this post here:

http://www.forexblog.org/2011/06/how-to-trade-the-franc-yen-dollar-correlation.html

Regards,

Raul Lopez

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Interest rates and NFP

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010

The US interest rate is schedule to be announced later today. Although no change is expected, it’s difficult to determine how traders all over the world will react to it. And of course, another scenario is an interest cut or a hike, its not likely to happen, but it still is a possibility and if either happen, I’m sure the market will go crazy.

Also, this Friday the NFP (employment report) is announced, analysts expect 65K. The impact that the market will take if the numbers comes positive will be less than if the number comes as a negative figure.

On both cases, the best thing to do is just be on the sidelines at the time of the release.  Personally, I’ll see how the market behaves at the US interest rate announcement, if doesn’t have a large impact on the market, I’ll resume my trading. But everything should be closed just before the NFP on Friday (even if it means that I’ll stay awake overnight).

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Forex Course

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Difficult week

Friday, October 8th, 2010

This week has been one of the most difficult weeks to trade since I remember, not because the results in my trading (because I didn’t place any trade this week) but because how the market behaved in the long term charts.

You see,  I trade based on what the market behaves in the long term chart, I analyze them and decide in which direction I’m trading that particular currency pair, and to tell you the truth, I saw no clear direction in most currency pairs and crosses. Good I stayed in the sidelines this week.

Possible reasons for this “misbehavior” : Interest rate announcements from the JPY, AUD, EUR and GBP, recent interventions of the BOJ, NFP report, talks about the Yuan (CHY), G7 meeting this weekend.

How did you do this week?

Regards,

Raul Lopez
Forex Training

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Plenty of Fundamental this week

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

This week is going to be a bit complicated to find clear market direction because of the fundamentals, there are plenty of them:

Yesterday:

Interest rates for JPY and AUD (neither changed)

Thursday:

Interest rates for the GBP and EUR

And Friday, the most important of all fundamentals:

Non-Farm payrolls report (US)

I’d suggest you be cautious, because all these fundamentals and important and the sentiment of the market could change in a blink of an eye.

I’m going to look for opportunities today and early tomorrow, and that’s it because everything should be closed by Thursday morning (before the Interest rate announces of the EUR and GBP).

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
Price Action

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NFP Impact in the USDCAD

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

As you already know last Friday the NFP was released (yellow square), take a look at the next chart:

USDCAD

USDCAD

The USDCAD was moving down in a smoothly way (blue arrow), then the NFP announcement made the USDCAD spike up, but after that it moved back down again (green arrow), and looks like the USDCAD will continue its way down until it finds the next LT support level around 1.0184

Personally, I wouldn’t trade the Canadian dollar, there are other opportunities that are clearer and safer.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez
http://www.straightforex.com/

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