Posts Tagged ‘Euro analysis’

EURUSD: Retracement it is…

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Since last December the EURUSD has been falling like a rock, it follow through on January and the first days of February. But we might be on the way of a small retracement (at least to the next LT resistance level):

EURUSD

EURUSD

It broke the resistance of the short term range and it is likely to continue its way up until it reaches at least, the next LT resistance level.

My Plan:

Look for long opportunities if the EURUSD keeps trading above 1.3707. Next LT resistance level is at 1.3846

All short opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe

Raul Lopez
StraightForex
http://www.straightforex.com/

EURUSD: Trading at an Important Level

Monday, February 1st, 2010

If you take a look at the EURUSD daily or 4H chart it will look as if it was already rejected from the LT support level, but it hasn’t… yet:

EURUSD

EURUSD

I think it would be safer to start looking for long opportunities when the EURUSD breaks the 1.3927 for the upside (it’s pretty close though), only then I will be looking for long opportunities.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Long Term Outlook

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

What do you think about EURUSD movements in the last two days? Interesting aren’t they (and better if you were short). I was thinking about how the EURUSD weekly chart would look like, and here are my conclusions:

EURUSD

EURUSD

- It started to range at the long term support level, first it broke the shorter term range for the upside, triggering a bullish market condition, but then it came back to the range.

- Then it (strongly) broke through the important LT support level and it will probably continue in this way until it hits the next LT support level.

Now, remember we are talking about the weekly charts, and it could take the EURUSD a few weeks to get there. What we are sure though is that it is in a very clear bearish market condition in the 1W charts.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Trading at an important level

Monday, January 18th, 2010

The EURUSD its been trading in a medium term range in between 1.4508 and 1.4316. Apparently it is being rejected from the support level at 1.4316:

EURUSD

EURUSD

We need further confirmation though to start looking for opportunities, because right now it is trading near the short term resistance level.

My Plan:

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4387 for the upside I will be looking for long trade opportunities

If the Euro breaks 1.4335 for the downside I’ll be looking for short trade opportunities.

Trade Safe
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Trading near a long term level, waiting for breakout

Monday, January 11th, 2010

Hope you all had a great and relaxed weekend because I think we could see pretty interesting moves this week.

The EURUSD is trading near a long term support level, 1.4517 and it has created a short term range in between 1.4540 and 1.4488:

EURUSD

EURUSD

We need a further confirmation in order to start looking for a trade opportunity.

My Trading Plan:

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4540 for the upside, I will be looking for long trade opportunities.

If the EURUSD breaks 1.4488 for the downside I’ll be looking for short trade opportunities.

I will do nothing it the Euro keeps trading in between the short term range.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Bearish and looking for short opportunities

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Even though there has been a small retracement in the EURUSD in this session, we are still in a bearish market condition:

EURUSD

EURUSD

Last Friday the Euro broke an important resistance level, so it is likely to continue its way down until it reaches the next long term support level around 1.4517.

Here is my trading plan:

As long as the EURUSD trades below 1.4683 I will be looking for short trade opportunities. My next LT support level is at 1.4517

All long opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: See you at 1.5310

Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Finally the EURUSD broke the top of the 4H range it traded for about 2 weeks:

EURUSD

EURUSD

It is in a clear bullish market condition, meaning only long opportunities are in play.

Here is my trading plan:

As long as the EURUSD keeps trading above 1.5038 I will be looking for long trade opportunities. The next long term resistance level is around 1.5340

All short opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez

EURUSD and USDCHF: both trading in a 4H range

Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Both the EURUSD and the USDCHF are trading in a 4H range; please take a look at the next charts:

EURUSD & USDCHF

EURUSD & USDCHF

Does it mean that these to currency pairs are not tradable today?

Nope, remember how we define the market condition, how the market reacts to important long term support and resistance levels, for instance, if the USDCHF gets rejected from the LT support level, we’ll be in a bullish market condition and if the EURUSD gets rejected from the resistance level, we´ll all be in a bearish market condition.

So today I’ll be looking for a trade in the direction of the market condition (if I get a good risk-reward ration on my trades).

Trade Safe
Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Bearish, looking for short opportunities

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

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Since last Monday we had a wild downside movement in the EURUSD, but it entered into a congestion zone where it was difficult to find clear support or resistance level, thus being difficult to trade.

This morning the EURUSD broke that congestion zone, and it is clearer now:

EURUSD

EURUSD

We might have a small retracement, but it is in a clear bearish market condition. And what is more interesting is that the next LT support level is a few hundred pips away :)

My Trading Plan:

As long as the Euro keeps trading below 1.4761 I will be looking for short trading opportunities. All take profit orders will be placed above the next support level: 1.4515

All long trading opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe

Raul Lopez

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EURUSD & USDCAD Update, after Core CPI

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

The EURUSD continues to trade in a bullish market condition, I’m still long here and I think I will hold this trade until it reaches 1.5300ish. Today the market had a retracement, after the core CPI announcement, luckily it didn’t broke the short term support level. Still looking to add positions.

The USDCAD yesterday was in a bearish market condition, it broke the short term range for the downside but it came back up. So right now I have widened up the short term range and waiting again for the market to break either side of it 1.0356 – 1.0207. If the market breaks the ST resistance level, I will be looking for long trading opportunities. If the market breaks the support level I will be looking for short trading opportunities.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Finally, in a Bullish Market Condition, will it reach 1.5346?

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Its been a while since the last time I placed a trade in the EURUSD, but now, apparently it wants to head up. But, how high could it go? Well, my next long term resistance level is at 1.5346, so we’ll probably see the EURUSD trading at those levels in the following days/weeks.

EURUSD

EURUSD

Right now it is trading in a short term range around 1.4859 and 1.4802. We’ll see what happens.

My Trading Plan:

As long as the EURUSD keeps trading above 1.4800 I will be looking for long trading opportunities. All take profit orders will be placed below the next LT resistance level around 1.5346.

All short opportunities will be ignored.

Trade Safe!

Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Finally out of the range, Longs in Play

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

Its been a while since the last time I traded the EURUSD, actually, there was one trade (long opportunity) but the market came back into the range. But now its clear, the EURUSD is officially out of the range, helped by the weakness of the US Dollar. Please take a look at the next chart:

EURUSD

EURUSD

What is better is that we still have some room before the market hits the next long term resistance level.

My Trading Plan:

Look for long opportunitiesin the Euro, all take profit orders will be placed below the next long term resistance level around 1.4653

All short signals will be ignored.

Good luck!

Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Will it break the range?

Monday, August 24th, 2009

The EURUSD has been trading in a not very well defined range, making it almost impossible to swing or position trade this pair. Right now it is trading just at the top of that range, if it breaks it, it has a long way to go to the next long term resistance level. Please take a look at the next chart:

EURUSD

EURUSD

The major resistance level is marked by the solid blue line, the green lines mark the short term range that the EURUSD needs to break before we start looking for trading opportunities.

Here is my Trading Plan:

If the market breaks the 1.4345, I will start looking for long trading opportunities. The next resistance level is around 1.4653.

If the market keeps trading below 1.4345, I will do nothing.

Good luck

Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Finally out of the range, longs in play

Monday, August 3rd, 2009

The EURUSD traded for nearly 2 months in an undefined trading range, where it was almost impossible to trade, or at least, I find hard to trade during those market conditions. But now, it broke the top of the range, please take a look at the next chart:

EURUSD

EURUSD

I see the EURUSD tradable again, after nearly 2 months…

My trading plan:

Will look for long opportunities, the next resistance level is around 1.4654.

All short trades will be ignored.

Good luck!

Raul Lopez

EURUSD: Finally out of the range, longs in play

Monday, July 20th, 2009

It’s been a while since the last time I took one trade in the EURUSD (around month and a half). The main reason was that it was trading in a range, but not an usual range, an undefined range where it was impossible to determine its turning points (by the way, this is the market condition where most traders lose money). Take a look at the chart below:

EURUSD

EURUSD

Now, it has reached the long zone, we I will be looking for long opportunities. All take profits should be placed below the next long term resistance level around 1.4326. But remember, if the market fall bellow 1.4138 it will be again in no ones land.

Good luck

Raul Lopez