We need to be careful with our NZDCHF & AUDJPY trades because later today, we have the interest rate announcement from the NZD. Although no change is expected, it still could have some impact on our open trades.
I had a trade open in the AUDJPY and closed it around the break even level.
My NZDCHF trade, I’m going to monitor it closely, I’d like to see it trading below 0.6960 before the announcement, otherwise I will close it.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
Bernanke testifies before the senate, and I’m worried about the questions and answers sessions, you never know what they are going to ask him, if it’s something about the market, crisis, USD, etc the market will take some impact.
Now, there are times that no impact is seen during Bernanke’s testimonies, I hope this is one of those.
Better yet, If we see some impact, let it be on the direction of my trades 
I’ll keep you posted.
Regards,
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
All US banks will be closed today, therefore there is not enough liquidity to make large moves in the market… I think the best thing to do today will be to be a sideliner
This week we have important announcements, a few of the most important are:
AUD Interest rate Today
AUD Employment change on Wednesday
GBP – Interest rate on Thursday
EUR – Interest rate on Thursday also…
USD – Non-farm payrolls on Friday
All of these have a great potential to have impact on the market!
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Free Forex Education
As you already know, the Non-farm Payrolls report is released tomorrow, it is the most important fundamental announcement, at least is the one that has the most impact in the market (or used to have the most impact). But I have noticed in the last months (even years) that the market doesn’t react to this announcement as it used to react. In these last months, the market spikes up, then down and at the end, it ends up where it was before the announcement…
So this is my plan for my trades:
EURJPY Trades
I have two longs here: 115.91 and 116.96 (currently at +160 and +55 pips respectively). Both of my SL orders are at 116.54.
If it breaks the 117.89 level up, I will hold my trades during the NFP announcement and will move my SL to 116.85 on both trades. If it doesn’t break the 117.89 level up I will close my trades before the announcement.
GBPAUD Trade
I have a short at 1.5616 (currently at +110 pips), and my SL order is at 1.5662
If it breaks the 1.5478 level down, I will hold my trade during the NFP announcement and will move my SL to 1.5586. If it doesn’t break it, I’ll close my trade.
We need to take in consideration that the NFP always has the potential to have a large impact in the Forex market, especially if the released number differs a lot from the expected one. We’ll see what happens.
Trade Safe and good luck with your trades.
What do you do? Do you keep your trades open during the NFP announcement?
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
The NFP release cameo out better than expected: 150K vs. 63K. The impact to the market wasn’t that wild though, as I said in a previous post, everyone was expecting a better number, the impact would have been larger if the number was worse than expected.
Its good though that the market didn’t take much impact because the market conditions on most currency pairs haven changed, what was bullish, they are still bullish, and the same goes for bearish currency pairs.
There are a few currency pairs that I really like, cant wait for next Monday to start trading them.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
The US interest rate is schedule to be announced later today. Although no change is expected, it’s difficult to determine how traders all over the world will react to it. And of course, another scenario is an interest cut or a hike, its not likely to happen, but it still is a possibility and if either happen, I’m sure the market will go crazy.
Also, this Friday the NFP (employment report) is announced, analysts expect 65K. The impact that the market will take if the numbers comes positive will be less than if the number comes as a negative figure.
On both cases, the best thing to do is just be on the sidelines at the time of the release. Personally, I’ll see how the market behaves at the US interest rate announcement, if doesn’t have a large impact on the market, I’ll resume my trading. But everything should be closed just before the NFP on Friday (even if it means that I’ll stay awake overnight).
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
There has been a lot of talk about the Chinese Yuan these days, Trichet (president of the ECB), Geithner (US Treasury Secretary) and Strauss-Kahn (IMF director), all of them are complaining about the unfair interventions of the Government of Chine in their currency pair. With these interventions China has an unfair advantage, because their products are made cheaper than other products in the rest of the world. This is probably why China has been able to maintain such an impressive growth in the last years.
What is interesting is that this weekend there is a G7 meeting, and guess what they are going to talk about? Of course, the Yuan.
This is just another reason (added to the fundamentals of the week: NFP, interest rates, etc.) I’d suggest you to trade with cautious. Myself, I’m going to resume my trading next Tuesday, but will keep an eye open to the markets today and tomorrow.
Did you notice the USDJPY is trading at 15 years low, and also the AUDUSD at historical highs??? Interesting isn’t it?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
I don’t know about you, but I don’t like how the Yen crosses have been trading lately, they seem a little nervous and hesitant, and now that a think about it, there could be a few reasons they are behaving like that:
BOJ Interventions – The BOJ is nervous at the levels the JPY is trading right now, they have been intervening selling JPY.
JPY Interest Rate announcement – Even when no hike was expected, anything could happen during an interest rate announcement.
US Non-farm payrolls – All currency pairs react to this announcement
Technically, they have been retracing at random levels, I see no clear direction on all of them. Now imagine, if sometimes the market is as clear as water and the market still goes against us, what could happen when the market is no clear at all?
I’ll leave the yen crosses alone for this week, we’ll resume analyzing and trading them next Monday.
The only Yen cross that is behaving in a clear market condition is the EURJPY, I will keep an eye open in the EURJPY, we’ll see what happen. I’m currently waiting for the EURJPY to break the ST resistance level at 115.22 to start looking for long opportunities.
How about you? What do you think?
Good luck!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
This week is going to be a bit complicated to find clear market direction because of the fundamentals, there are plenty of them:
Yesterday:
Interest rates for JPY and AUD (neither changed)
Thursday:
Interest rates for the GBP and EUR
And Friday, the most important of all fundamentals:
Non-Farm payrolls report (US)
I’d suggest you be cautious, because all these fundamentals and important and the sentiment of the market could change in a blink of an eye.
I’m going to look for opportunities today and early tomorrow, and that’s it because everything should be closed by Thursday morning (before the Interest rate announces of the EUR and GBP).
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Price Action
Ok, that’s it for me, I’m just going to close my charts get ready for my long weekend.
You already know that the market act unexpectedly when the NFP is about to be announced, so the best thing to do is just stay on the sidelines and resume your trading early next week.
Even if you have a good open position, you can always resume it next monday, take in consideration that the NFP can change the “sentiment” of the market. So what was considered high this week, could be low the next one.
Trade Safe! and have a good weekend!
Raul Lopez
This week is going to be difficult to trade and determine the market condition on most currency pairs, we have plenty of important announcements and you know that sometimes fundamentals change the sentiment of currency pairs:
Among the most important announcements for this week are:
AUD – Interest rate announcement (Monday)
GBP – Interest rate announcement (Thursday)
EUR – Interest rate announcement (Thursday)
USD – Non-farm Payrolls (Friday)
We’ll have to be careful around those days, especially Thursday and Friday or better yet, take a long weekend you won’t miss much.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
http://www.straightforex.com/
You know what could happen after US interest rate announcement, the sentiment of the whole market could change.
So I think the best thing to do is just to wait and see what happens after the announcement.
Trade Safe!
As you already know last Friday the NFP was released (yellow square), take a look at the next chart:
USDCAD
The USDCAD was moving down in a smoothly way (blue arrow), then the NFP announcement made the USDCAD spike up, but after that it moved back down again (green arrow), and looks like the USDCAD will continue its way down until it finds the next LT support level around 1.0184
Personally, I wouldn’t trade the Canadian dollar, there are other opportunities that are clearer and safer.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
http://www.straightforex.com/
Fundamental Reasons: Fear of grave contagion from Greece to the rest of Europe
Technical Reasons: Take a look at the next chart:
EURUSD
The EURUSD is trading below every important level in the short term charts, it is trading in a bearish market condition in the long term charts, even in the weekly charts, the EURUSD looks bearish.
So if you are looking for reasons to short the EURUSD, you have plenty of them.
What do you think, are you shorting it?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
http://www.straightforex.com/
Since the second week of February that the EURUSD and the USDCHF have been trading in a not very well defined range. I don’t feel keen about trading them unless they break the medium term range, and you know… I guess with the fundamentals coming up later this week both of them will break that range:
Medium term ranges:
EURUSD: 1.3457 – 1.3782
USDCHF: 1.0609 – 1.0941
Important fundamental announcements for this week:
Monday: AUD Interest rate
Tuesday: CAD Interest rate
Thursday: GBP Interest rate, EUR interest rate
Friday: Non-farm payrolls
Trade safe alright?
Raul Lopez
http://www.straightforex.com/