I didn’t, most of you already know I don’t like to trade news announcements. You never know what could happen, almost an infinite scenarios are possible:
We could get a good number and:
We could get a bad number and:
You never know…
So I’m just curious to see if there are still traders that trade news announcements.
Do you trade them?
Have a great weekend!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
Want to know why I’m taking a long weekend?
So let me suggest you, just take the rest of the week off, I’m going to do it.
Are you doing to trade the rest of the week? Let me know.
Please have a great weekend!
Good luck!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
Really! The market is nervous, I’m nervous and most traders are too (I hope)! I just don’t think this is the right time to look for trade opportunities.
The situation on Greece its not looking good for the Euro, the surprising interest rate cut by the ECB (they are saying “euro economy it’s not looking good”), tomorrow USD and CAD employment reports. Do you see any reason to trade?
The only winner is gold (XAUUSD), it’s been going up, it is likely to continue its way up. If you have a long trade open I’d suggest you to hold it, if you don’t, just wait and resume your trading next Monday!
I’ll be looking at charts, but now way I’m going to trade neither today nor tomorrow!
Trade safe ok?
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
Hope you all had a great weekend!
Here is the list of what I think are the most important fundamental announcements of the week.
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday
Hope you have a great week ahead!
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
I don’t know about you, but I don’t see many pairs trading in a clear market condition, for instance, today I only trading about 3 or 4 today, on the others, I have no clue of what the market is likely to do.
Might be that this week we have a zillion important fundamental announcements, amongst the most important are:
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday:
So be careful this week, will you?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
A few weeks ago everyone was talking about gold, it hit all times high, it was time to buy gold, etc. It probably had the best rally ever, almost reached the $2000 mark. Now let’s ask ourselves a question: Why did it go up? There is no right or wrong answer, but I’m sure most of you agree that gold went up because of the world economic conditions (therefore using gold as a safe haven), they are not good.
Now, XAUUSD has retraced, it dropped like a rock, and probably had its worst fall ever, it almost reached the $1500 mark in a few days. Talking fundamentally, does this drop make sense?
I don’t think so, world economic conditions haven’t changed, so I think we could see gold reach higher levels.
Is this the right time to trade gold?
Nope, it is trading pretty close to an important support level. I’d like to see it trading in a short term range first, then a breakout of the ST resistance level, only then I’ll be ready to trade it, for now, I’ll wait.
What do you think?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
This week isn’t full of fundamental announcements, but we got the most important of them all: US interest rate announcement. Last time it was announced, the market went wild, not because there was any change on the interest rates, but because the statement that comes along with it. Traders and investors have been focusing on this statement in the last months, so you need to be careful.
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday:
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
Hope you all had a nice and relaxing weekend!
These are the most important fundamental announcements of the week:
Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday:
Be aware of them alright?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
The Swiss National Bank intervened again on its currency. According to Bloomberg, the SNB sent an email statement: “With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a euro-franc exchange rate below the minimum rate of 1.20 francs” and “is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”
Guess where the EURCHF is currently trading? 1.2023 (from 1.1015 earlier this morning, that’s around 1000 pips)… So it worked, we’ll see if it only worked on the short term (like BOJ interventions) or it has a sustained effect (what they really want). Because we have something clear, as long as traders, investors, bankers all over the world continue seeing the CHF as a reserve currency (because of the debt crisis, etc), sooner or later the market will lead to renewed franc gains, that’s how the market works.
In the meanwhile, I will wait for clearer market conditions on all CHF crosses. And as soon as I have something, I’ll let you know.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
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This is the list of what I think are the most important announcements this week. Remember every fundamental announcement (even the ones not included on this list) have the potential to have great impact in the market!
Monday 5th:
Tuesday 6th:
Wednesday 7th:
Thursday 8th:
Friday 9th:
Remember CAD and GBP are the currencies that react the most to their fundamental announcements.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
Follow me on Facebook
On Thursday, Friday and Saturday, there is an event called “Jackson Hole Symposium” which main goal is for central bankers, finance ministers, market experts to gather and talk about the current market conditions, currencies, debt crisis, markets, etc. And guess who is going to be there:
Your friend Ben Bernanke, so please, tell him to rattle the market a little, but not too much!
We´ll have to wait until Monday though, because as most important events and non schedule announcements (are released during the weekend), his turn to talk is on Friday, when the market are closed. So you know, traders, investors all over the world can digest the news with a few beers before taking any action on Monday.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training
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As a result of the US debt rating downgrade from AAA to AA+ (last Friday), we started the week with a gap. By the way, we saw exactly the opposite of what should have happened. On Monday, investors instead of getting rid of US bonds, etc (selling them) they ended up buying more, as if the US debt rating went from AAA to AAAA (there is no AAAA debt rating though). This is the probe sometimes fundamentals are not in line with market movements, I’ve seen this over and over again in the last year or so… So if you are still trading on fundamentals, give it some thought, alright?
Anyway, Monday and early Tuesday was perfect for Forex traders, the market swings were smooth and clear, and what’s better, I was able to profit from them. I took two trades, I got stopped out on one of them around the breakeven level (if I didn’t move my SL level it would had hit my take profit order) and the other one hit my TP order. So I’m up about 3% for the week.
Then on Tuesday, everything changed… the US interest rate was released (there was no change, still at 0.25%). But what was important about the announcement was what they mentioned about the interest rates for the coming years: they will hold interest rates this low for at least 2 more years. What they are really trying to say is this:
Hey, we (the FED) expect the economy to remain sluggish at least for the next two years. Don’t be surprised if you see continued high unemployment, low domestic economy growth (or even stall), etc.
And how did the Forex market react to this? Large and undefined (and difficult to trade) swings on most currency pairs and crosses. From Tuesday to Friday most currencies traded on a undefined range, being very difficult to trade them (at least with consistent results), so guess what, I stayed away from the market since then.
But I think things will clear up next week, the market cant trade on undefined ranges for ever, sooner or later we are going to see breakouts of these ranges, and we need to be there, we need to be able to profit from them, and this could happen the week ahead.
Let me know what you think!
Have a good weekend!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
Today I’ve read two articles about the Swiss National Bank concerns about the CHF appreciation:
First one: “Switzerland’s central bank said yesterday it will increase the supply of francs to fight the currency’s massive overvaluation.”
So they are using the exact same strategy the Bank of Japan does, the question here is, will it be as unsuccessful as the one used by the BOJ? I think it will. A currency pair goes up or down based on the supply/demand for it, if it is going up these days its probably because traders and investors see the CHF as a safe haven, as a reserve currency, and whatever the monetary instrument they use to stop the overvaluation, sooner or later the market will correct and continue in the direction of its sentiment (which right now is CHF bullish), that’s exactly the market job.
The second one: “some economists have said the franc’s surge toward euro parity is adding pressure on the SNB to consider a peg for the first time since the Bretton Woods currency system was abandoned in 1973.”
Now, this one could stop the massive overvaluation (still they will need to intervene), but it would be very drastic measure. With this announcement, they are following again the BOJ steps, I think they were just trying to “influence” investors, and see if they could stop them from getting CHF instruments.
This is just my opinion, only time will tell what destiny has for the CHF.
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
The decision of holding your trades during important fundamentals releases its always tough, you never know what could happen. I definitely feel more comfortable once the market has already moved on my favor and in order to hold my trade, I need to have nothing at risk on such trade, for instance moving your stop loss to the breakeven level. But you need to remember that you still need to give the market some room so you don’t get stopped out during normal market swings.
So if it is too close to my entry SL level I just close it. However, if the market has moved on my favor, my SL is at least at the breakeven level and has enough room from my SL to the current market action, I hold my trade.
This was the case of the GBPCAD trade I took yesterday, I moved my SL since yesterday and had enough room to hold my trade during the non-farm payrolls report. It came out a little better than expected and the market didn’t take a big hit, which was good for my trade (finally hit my TP order).
Now, about the non-farm payrolls report, have you noticed that the market has not been getting a lot of impact from this announcement lately? I have… And its good! What do you think?
Have a great weekend!
Raul Lopez
Forex Course
I don’t know about you, but I think the volatility we are going to see this week might be something to note (and be careful about).
First, we have plenty of fundamentals announcements, just to mention a few of the most important:
Second, US Debt-Limit agreement, there is optimism about the agreement, but some analysts are already talking about a possible US debt rating downgrade, if this happens, I don’t want to tell you how the market is going to take it…
Third, its not that evident but still could mean something. Today there was a holiday on Swiss banks, but did you see the CHF movements? It went up on almost all crosses, including: GBPCHF, EURCHF, USDCHF, etc. It could be that something on Europe is cooking, and traders and investors are using the CHF as a safe heaven.
What do you think?
Be careful this week , would you?
Trade Safe!
Raul Lopez
Forex Training