Archive for February, 2009

EURUSD Analysis

Monday, February 16th, 2009

In the last two weeks the Euro/dollar has been trading in range in between 1.2763 and 1.3073 a 310 pips range (blue lines) ‘boring don’t you think?’ Right now the market is trading just above the bottom of the range, which means the market could be reaching the top of the range in next hours/days.

So, here is the strategy for the EURUSD:

The trading scenario I favor: if the market keeps trading in between the mentioned range, I will try to look for long opportunities around 1.2763 (where it is right now), placing all take profit levels below the top of the range.

Other scenarios:

If the market breaks the bottom of the range, will look for short opportunities

If the market breaks the top of the range (1.3073), will look for long opportunities.

Good luck in your week!

RL

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Geithner Talk…

Wednesday, February 11th, 2009

To tell you the truth, I didn’t think the market would react to Geithner’s speech. But it did. A guess investor were not convinced about the new bank plan (or probably they didn’t get NEW information, which was what they were after). The fact is that the market did react to this.

What concerns us ‘Forex Traders’ is that this could trigger periods of volatility, the type of volatility that is difficult to trade: undefined ranges. This is the case for most major currency pairs. Right now its very difficult to trade based in the daily charts, because currency pairs are trading in a pretty tight range, and if you use Stop Loss orders (and everyone should use them, specially during this periods of volatility), they will get triggered.

I suggest you to trade based in the 4H or even based in the 1H charts, take small profits, but also try to find trades with small SL orders.

Anyway, be careful these days.

Good luck!

RL

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Short AUDUSD

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

A short trade in the AUDUSD has just been triggered.

The long term charts in the AUDUSD are behaving just in a pretty big range in between 0.7242 and 0.6080. Of course there are several important levels in between those two extremes, one of them being 0.6350. The market bounced off that level and gave us a short signal.

So right now I’m short at 0.6305 and I’m looking to take profits around 0.6110. If the market goes against me, I will take a loss above 0.6360. I will also watch closely how the market behaves at the next short term support level 0.6253, will see what happens…

Good luck in your week! I’ll keep you updated about the development of this trade…

RL

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